Ethiopia 2025/26 Harvest Update

The 2025/26 harvest is almost about to begin across Ethiopia, with cherries expected to reach full ripeness at varying times by altitude. Overall, the harvest is slightly delayed compared to last year by approximately 15 to 20 days due to changes in weather patterns. In South Ethiopia, including Yirgachefe, Gedeb and Guji, farmers expect a 5 to 7% decrease in harvest volume, in comparison to the previous year where the crop from these three regions was quite high. Meanwhile, the western and south-western parts of the country are experiencing a strong on-cycle year and anticipate a notably larger crop than last season. Harvest Timing Lowlands: Southern Ethiopia Harvest begins mid-October and concluding by December. Western Ethiopia harvest begins End of October and concluding in January Mid-altitude areas: Start end-October, finishing by first half of January. High-altitude regions: Begin November, wrapping up by first half of February.

Comparison to last year Overall, production levels are expected to be roughly in line with 2024/25. Regions that produced heavily last year, mainly in the south, have seen a slight drop, while areas that were less productive, particularly in the southwest and west, are showing increased yields. Rainfall has been consistent throughout the season, supporting healthy cherry development and stable production conditions. Market Pricing Cherry prices are expected to be significantly higher than last year due to the devaluation of the ETB. In addition to this, the increase of the NY “C” market has further driven up local coffee prices, as competition for coffee has intensified throughout the year. While the 2024/25 season began at around 35-40 ETB/kg, this year prices have started around 120 ETB/kg and have since risen significantly to 145 ETB/kg, reflecting both higher production costs and strong local demand for Ethiopian coffee. The country seems to be facing some hurdles, including controlling cherry prices, which are already volatile at the beginning of the season. In addition, there are more active players in the coffee sector this year, which will significantly impact the prices at which coffees are offered. Sustainability Updates In the Sidamo region, we have expanded our footprint through the Lalisaa project, assigning a full-time staff member to provide on-the-ground support for farmers. This closer engagement helped us strengthen relationships, improve traceability and connect farmers’ coffees with suitable markets, allowing them to benefit directly from higher global coffee prices. In parallel, and in collaboration with our destination teams and clients, we began returning GrainPro bags to Ethiopia. These bags were redistributed to farmers to improve on-farm storage and protect coffee quality, especially in areas where warehouse conditions remain limited. Looking Ahead With stable weather, improved yields in western regions and stronger price incentives for farmers, Ethiopia’s 2025/26 harvest is poised for a solid season overall.